Less sex & more condomes = stop to HIV

>From prof. Hans Rosling blogg
http://roslingsblogger.blogspot.com/2006/11/less-sex-more-condomes-stop-to-hiv.html


Less sex & more condomes = stop to HIV
Yesterday UNAIDS declared: " the global AIDS epidemic continuous to
grow... an estimated 40 millions are living with HIV... the number
with HIV has increased from 37 millions in 2004. www.unaids.org
But on the AIDS day in 2004 the message from UNAIDS was that "over 41
million people are living with HIV/AIDS"
http://www.un.org/events/aids/2004/

Are UNAIDS lying? No, it is led by honest and good scientists, so how
come? If you dig further into the data you find that the uncertainty
range of UNAIDS estimates are wide: - somewhere between 32 to 44
millions lived with HIV in 2004 and today somewhere between 34 to 47
millions. So the true number may be slowly falling. A reasonable
conclusion is that the number of HIV infected in the world remains the
same over the last years. But telling that may put funding for much
needed HIV/AIDS control at risk, so its better to conclude that the
epidemic continuous to grow.

UNAIDS may be excused for drawing the scary conclusion that the
epidemic is still increasing, because they simultaneously communicate
that there are solid evidence that the epidemic is decreasing in more
and more countries. The exclusive focus on treatment may have delayed
the decrease. Best available assessment indicate that money is best
used on scaling up prevention
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/311/5766/1474

But international support to prevention tends to focus on the moral of
the donor rather than the effectiveness of the action. The present US
administration likes to fund "less sex" and Sweden likes to fund "more
condoms". Evidence from Zimbabwe tells that both works. Later sex
debut and fewer partners may even be more important than more condom
use http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/311/5761/664
posted by Hans Rosling at Wednesday, November 22, 2006

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